Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Divorces Fell by 20% Since 2002

According to official statistics, the number of divorces in England & Wales fell from 147,735 in 2002 to 118,140 in 2012. That's a drop of 20% in ten years:

Source: ONS
In fact it's down from a high of 165,018 in the early 1990s.

Add to that the number of people who can now get married for the first tome thanks to same sex marriages and you could say that the institution of marriage is experiencing somewhat of a resurgence. There were 10,000 new civil civil partnerships in 2006 alone following it's introduction, for example.

Still Births Have Fallen Drastically Since 1927

The death of a baby is amongst the most tragic and heartbreaking thing for any individual to bear. The definition of a stillbirth is any baby born after 24 or more weeks completed gestation that did not, at any time, breathe or show signs of life.

Thankfully, such events are increasingly rare. According to official statistics the number of stillbirths in the late 1920s and early 1930s was as high as 42 per 1000 births. Nowadays, it's fewer than 6 per 1000 births:

Source: ONS
That amounted to a staggering 28,000 stillbirths per year compared to fewer than 4,000 today, even more amazing taking into account that the population of the UK was two thirds of what it was now.

Note the huge drop in stillbirths thanks to the introduction of the NHS in 1948. Those seeking to dismantle the NHS would do well to heed that as a warning of the effects of removing people's access to free healthcare.

Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Marked Improvement in Weather Reporting Accuracy Since 1980

The much maligned weather man gets a raw deal, it would seem. The accuracy of weather reports is improving steadily thanks to multi-million pound super computing installations that can more accurately model the weather patterns.

The following graph shows how, since 1980, the 3 day forecast has improved from around 85% to just under 100%. Likewise, the ten day forecast has improved from just 30% in 1995 to around 45%:

Source: BBC
As the BBC report puts it, overall, the accuracy of the forecast has improved hugely over the last four decades. Our current five-day forecast is as good as our three-day forecast was about 20 years ago. Our useful forecast window has increased by an extra day every 10 years.

Friday, 2 October 2015

Technology Keeps Getting Smaller, Faster, Better & Cheaper

Did you ever wonder how it is that today you can buy a handheld smartphone that's got way more computing capacity in it than all of NASA used to land man on the moon? More than IBM used to beat chess grandmaster Gary Kasparov at chess? And all for £150 or so for a basic model?

The answer is that computing technology - processors, memory and storage - is getting exponentially smaller, faster, better and cheaper over time. It's so cheap that we can be frivolous with it today in fact. Flappy Birds, SnapChat, Tinder, kitten memes and terrabytes of selfies.

The only reason this is possible is that somewhere, in some research and development lab of a computer components manufacturer, boffins are slaving away to make the components of your phones and computers smaller, faster, better and cheaper.

Take processors, for example, the brains of your phone and computer. What makes them keep getting faster, smaller, and consuming less power than those of yesteryear is principally down to the fact that each generation is manufactured to be smaller than the last. This means that today's processors can either be smaller and use less energy, or cram more transistors in than the last generation of processors - or both.

Take this, somewhat elderly, graph showing how many transistors are crammed onto today's processors compared to those in 1971:
Source: go-rbcs.com
That's possible because the size of the transistors - the zero / one switches at the heart of any processor - can now be manufactured in mind blowingly small sizes. The sorts of sizes we're talking about here are tiny, measured in nanometers, which are equal to one billionth of a metre ( 0.000000001 m).

As recently as the year 2000, transistors were 130nm in size, which is still pretty small. But that's nothing, we'll soon be mass manufacturing transistors less than 10nm in size, whilst 7nm transistors have already been demonstrated in a lab. That's an incredible reduction in component size:

Source: qph.is.quoracdn.net
Those boffins keep on breaking down technical barriers preventing progress in building things at unfathomably small sizes, and processors keep getting smaller, faster, better and cheaper as a result.

That's why your next phone will be able to load Flappy Birds that bit quicker than your last phone.

Friday, 11 September 2015

Road Fatalities Halved Since Year 2000

According to official government statistics, overall road fatalities in the UK has halved since the year 2000.

The statistics refer to personal injury accidents on public roads (including footways) which become known to the police within 30 days. In particular, damage-only accidents, with no human casualties or accidents on private roads or car parks are not included.

As the following graph shows, overall fatalities halved from 3,409 in the year 2000 to 1,713 by the year 2013:

Source: UK.GOV statistics
The biggest drop in fatalities were for car occupants, due to increasingly safe car designs, and also pedestrians which have more than halved since 2000. The smallest drop was for cyclist fatalities, which still dropped 15%.

Tuesday, 18 August 2015

Recycling - We No Longer Just Landfill Our Rubbish

It's not so very long ago that once you'd finished using an item you'd bought, you chucked it in the bin (singular) and it got buried in a huge hole in the ground somewhere. Plastics, glass, batteries, food waste, oil cans, paper - the lot. A refined resource, used for the briefest of time, and then buried in landfill to decompose forever more.

Nowadays it seems unthinkable for most of us to not recycle our waste packaging. If you're stuck in a place without recycling bins with an empty can or bottle it feels uncomfortable to just bin it with everything else. If you have a type of plastic packaging which the local council won't accept in their collections it just feels weird not adding it to one of your recycling boxes. And all this is a surprisingly recent phenomenon in the UK.

As recently as the mid 1990s that most areas of the UK had no real recycling schemes in place. Only conscientious folks with enough time on their hands took their bottles and cans to bottle banks, there were no home collections. Even the traditional bottled milk collection and bottle return system was on the wane, and the pop bottle coin deposit schemes of the 50's and 60's had all but died out. Visitors from more enlightened European countries reported feeling the same un-comfortableness binning bottles and cans as we do today.

But all that began to change by the turn of the millennium, and now recycling rates in England have jumped from 11% to 42%:

Source: Insomnia.co.uk
Waste products like plastics and cans are both increasingly recycled where once they were just buried:

Source: Recoup.org
Source: Sustain-ed.org
But there's still a long way to go to eradicate the remaining landfill waste which cannot be recycled. One suggestion is that there should be more Energy From Waste (EFW) incineration plants in the UK like in many other countries, which would put much of the remaining 75% of un-recycled waste to good use, rather than being left to decompose into its constituent waste gasses in an ugly hole in the ground:

Source: Arc21.org.uk
That way the UK could incinerate about 50% of its waste to generate energy, recycle most of the rest and only landfill a tiny remainder, just like in countries like Denmark and Sweden.

Monday, 3 August 2015

The Internet - Knowledge is Power

The ability for the knowledge of mankind to progress and develop is dependent upon people observing a phenomenon, investigating its cause and publishing their findings for others to see. Historically, back when literacy was in the hands of the few, and the distance over which knowledge could be transmitted was very short, it was difficult for somebody to be able to document a piece of knowledge and have it read by enough people to ensure it was transmitted down the generations.

Consequently, whatever it was that caused the small population of Mesolithic people who built Stonehenge to do so is lost in the mists of time. Likewise, while ancient people could build complex machinery such as the Antikythera mechanism as early as 150 BC, perhaps inspired by the work of Archimedes, the secrets of its purpose, design and usage were not passed on to others, meaning it was centuries before such mechanisms were possible again. If knowledge isn't written down and passed on to others, it runs the risk of dying out within a generation and setting back progress hundreds of years before somebody else comes up with the same idea.

Since literacy was traditionally only available to the elite or the hierarchy of the church, the common man was barred from being able to read others work or write down their own observations. In pre-modern times it is unlikely that literacy was found in more than about 30-40% of the population, meaning that 60-70% of people were out of the equation of book learning altogether. This was true in England as late as the mid-Victorian era before compulsory education kicked in.

For centuries, the only way for a book to be duplicated was for it to be laboriously copied out by hand by scribes, which mean that books were outrageously expensive and limited in number. It is said that the 17th century poet John Milton, although blind towards the end of his life, was the last person to know everything because he had read virtually every book ever written at that time.

Given the small numbers of each book that existed, on numerous occasions library fires wiped out every last copy of a given work. Consequently, the list of lost literary works is long and harrowing, and who knows how much quicker knowledge would have advanced if those works had been duplicated and distributed before they were lost?

Then Gutenberg invented moveable type in 1439, and the cost of reproducing books came down drastically. The number of books published in Europe ballooned, directly enabling both the Renaissance and scientific revolution:
Source: Wikipedia
So the simple ability to publish works dragged humanity out of the dark ages. Even then, the ability for a person to record and distribute their ideas was limited by having the financial resources to allot the time to write a book and the backing of a publisher to print and distribute it. That limitation was only overcome with the arrival of the Internet in the 1990s.

Nowadays, it's possible for anyone with access to relatively cheap computer equipment, or even a tablet or smartphone, to publish their thoughts to the entire on-line world. Social media allows tweets and statuses to be broadcast instantly around the world, free blogs like this one allow publication of longer thoughts, ideas and concepts and cheaply hosted websites allow grander schemes to be demonstrated to the world. The number of 'authors' can therefore be said to have ballooned well beyond traditional book authoring since the arrival of the Internet:

Source: Seed Magazine - A Writing Revolution
Now, clearly there's a question over whether more quantity necessarily means more quality, and quite a bit of internet content is limited to kitten pictures and smut. However, the number of people that a given on-line publication can theoretically reach is now heading towards 3 billion:

Source: Internet Live Stats

The fastest Internet user growth rates can be found in third world countries where access to education has traditionally been limited, reaching up to 17% growth per year in many African countries:

Source: Internet Live Stats
Since the first website went on-line in 1991 there are now a staggering 980 million websites out there:

Source: Internet Live Stats
So, perhaps you might want to limit yourself to reading the five million articles in English on Wikipedia (launched 2001), or buying one of the 32.8 million books from Amazon (launched 1995), or watching some of the 300 hours of video uploaded to YouTube every minute (launched 2005), or maybe the collected thoughts of 1.5 billion Facebook users (launched 2004) and 300 million Twitter users (launched 2006). Or maybe one of the numerous free on-line book repositories with thousands of titles available for free.

Given that little lot, the chances of another John Milton reading everything that had ever been published are exactly zero. The democratisation of published knowledge has well and truly arrived.