Wednesday 4 November 2015

Marked Improvement in Weather Reporting Accuracy Since 1980

The much maligned weather man gets a raw deal, it would seem. The accuracy of weather reports is improving steadily thanks to multi-million pound super computing installations that can more accurately model the weather patterns.

The following graph shows how, since 1980, the 3 day forecast has improved from around 85% to just under 100%. Likewise, the ten day forecast has improved from just 30% in 1995 to around 45%:

Source: BBC
As the BBC report puts it, overall, the accuracy of the forecast has improved hugely over the last four decades. Our current five-day forecast is as good as our three-day forecast was about 20 years ago. Our useful forecast window has increased by an extra day every 10 years.

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